Combining Search, Social Media, and Traditional Data Sources to Improve Influenza Surveillance

We present a machine learning-based methodology capable of providing real-time ("nowcast") and forecast estimates of influenza activity in the US by leveraging data from multiple data sources including: Google searches, Twitter microblogs, nearly real-time hospital visit records, and data from a participatory surveillance system. Our main contribution consists of combining multiple influenza-like illnesses (ILI) activity estimates, generated independently with each data source, into a single prediction of ILI utilizing machine learning ensemble approaches. Our methodology exploits the information in each data source and produces accurate weekly ILI predictions for up to four weeks ahead of the release of CDC's ILI reports. We evaluate the predictive ability of our ensemble approach during the 2013-2014 (retrospective) and 2014-2015 (live) flu seasons for each of the four weekly time horizons. Our ensemble approach demonstrates several advantages: (1) our ensemble method's predictions outperform every prediction using each data source independently, (2) our methodology can produce predictions one week ahead of GFT's real-time estimates with comparable accuracy, and (3) our two and three week forecast estimates have comparable accuracy to real-time predictions using an autoregressive model. Moreover, our results show that considerable insight is gained from incorporating disparate data streams, in the form of social media and crowd sourced data, into influenza predictions in all time horizon

The spine of the swan: A Herschel study of the DR21 ridge and filaments in Cygnus X

In order to characterise the cloud structures responsible for the formation of high-mass stars, we present Herschel observations of the DR21 environment. Maps of the column density and dust temperature unveil the structure of the DR21 ridge and several connected filaments. The ridge has column densities larger than 1e23/cm^2 over a region of 2.3 pc^2. It shows substructured column density profiles and branching into two major filaments in the north. The masses in the studied filaments range between 130 and 1400 Msun whereas the mass in the ridge is 15000 Msun. The accretion of these filaments onto the DR21 ridge, suggested by a previous molecular line study, could provide a continuous mass inflow to the ridge. In contrast to the striations seen in e.g., the Taurus region, these filaments are gravitationally unstable and form cores and protostars. These cores formed in the filaments potentially fall into the ridge. Both inflow and collisions of cores could be important to drive the observed high-mass star formation. The evolutionary gradient of star formation running from DR21 in the south to the northern branching is traced by decreasing dust temperature. This evolution and the ridge structure can be explained by two main filamentary components of the ridge that merged first in the south.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication as a Letter in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Cluster-formation in the Rosette molecular cloud at the junctions of filaments

For many years feedback processes generated by OB-stars in molecular clouds, including expanding ionization fronts, stellar winds, or UV-radiation, have been proposed to trigger subsequent star formation. However, hydrodynamic models including radiation and gravity show that UV-illumination has little or no impact on the global dynamical evolution of the cloud. The Rosette molecular cloud, irradiated by the NGC2244 cluster, is a template region for triggered star-formation, and we investigated its spatial and density structure by applying a curvelet analysis, a filament-tracing algorithm (DisPerSE), and probability density functions (PDFs) on Herschel column density maps, obtained within the HOBYS key program. The analysis reveals not only the filamentary structure of the cloud but also that all known infrared clusters except one lie at junctions of filaments, as predicted by turbulence simulations. The PDFs of sub-regions in the cloud show systematic differences. The two UV-exposed regions have a double-peaked PDF we interprete as caused by shock compression. The deviations of the PDF from the log-normal shape typically associated with low- and high-mass star-forming regions at Av~3-4m and 8-10m, respectively, are found here within the very same cloud. This shows that there is no fundamental difference in the density structure of low- and high-mass star-forming regions. We conclude that star-formation in Rosette - and probably in high-mass star-forming clouds in general - is not globally triggered by the impact of UV-radiation. Moreover, star formation takes place in filaments that arose from the primordial turbulent structure built up during the formation of the cloud. Clusters form at filament mergers, but star formation can be locally induced in the direct interaction zone between an expanding HII--region and the molecular cloud.Comment: A&A Letter, in pres

The Pipe Nebula as seen with Herschel: Formation of filamentary structures by large-scale compression ?

A growing body of evidence indicates that the formation of filaments in interstellar clouds is a key component of the star formation process. In this paper, we present new Herschel PACS and SPIRE observations of the B59 and Stem regions in the Pipe Nebula complex, revealing a rich, organized network of filaments. The asymmetric column density profiles observed for several filaments, along with the bow-like edge of B59, indicates that the Pipe Nebula is being compressed from its western side, most likely by the winds from the nearby Sco OB2 association. We suggest that this compressive flow has contributed to the formation of some of the observed filamentary structures. In B59, the only region of the entire Pipe complex showing star formation activity, the same compressive flow has likely enhanced the initial column density of the clump, allowing it to become globally gravitationally unstable. Although more speculative, we propose that gravity has also been responsible for shaping the converging filamentary pattern observed in B59. While the question of the relative impact of large-scale compression and gravity remains open in B59, large-scale compression appears to be a plausible mechanism for the initial formation of filamentary structures in the rest of the complexComment: 9 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Herschel observations of embedded protostellar clusters in the Rosette Molecular Cloud

The Herschel OB young stellar objects survey (HOBYS) has observed the Rosette molecular cloud, providing an unprecedented view of its star formation activity. These new far-infrared data reveal a population of compact young stellar objects whose physical properties we aim to characterise. We compiled a sample of protostars and their spectral energy distributions that covers the near-infrared to submillimetre wavelength range. These were used to constrain key properties in the protostellar evolution, bolometric luminosity, and envelope mass and to build an evolutionary diagram. Several clusters are distinguished including the cloud centre, the embedded clusters in the vicinity of luminous infrared sources, and the interaction region. The analysed protostellar population in Rosette ranges from 0.1 to about 15 Msun with luminosities between 1 and 150 Lsun, which extends the evolutionary diagram from low-mass protostars into the high-mass regime. Some sources lack counterparts at near- to mid-infrared wavelengths, indicating extreme youth. The central cluster and the Phelps & Lada 7 cluster appear less evolved than the remainder of the analysed protostellar population. For the central cluster, we find indications that about 25% of the protostars classified as Class I from near- to mid-infrared data are actually candidate Class 0 objects. As a showcase for protostellar evolution, we analysed four protostars of low- to intermediate-mass in a single dense core, and they represent different evolutionary stages from Class 0 to Class I. Their mid- to far-infrared spectral slopes flatten towards the Class I stage, and the 160 to 70um flux ratio is greatest for the presumed Class 0 source. This shows that the Herschel observations characterise the earliest stages of protostellar evolution in detail.Comment: Astronomy & Astrophysics letter, 6 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in the Special Issue for Herschel first result

<i>Herschel</i> observations of B1-bS and B1-bN: two first hydrostatic core candidates in the Perseus star-forming cloud

We report far-infrared Herschel observations obtained between 70 μm and 500 μm of two star-forming dusty condensations, [HKM99] B1-bS and [HKM99] B1-bN, in the B1 region of the Perseus star-forming cloud. In the western part of the Perseus cloud, B1-bS is the only source detected in all six PACS and SPIRE photometric bands, but it is not visible in the Spitzer map at 24 μm. B1-bN is clearly detected between 100 μm and 250 μm. We have fitted the spectral energy distributions of these sources to derive their physical properties, and find that a simple greybody model fails to reproduce the observed spectral energy distributions. At least a two-component model is required, consisting of a central source surrounded by a dusty envelope. The properties derived from the fit, however, suggest that the central source is not a Class 0 object. We then conclude that while B1-bS and B1-bN appear to be more evolved than a pre-stellar core, the best-fit models suggest that their central objects are younger than a Class 0 source. Hence, they may be good candidates to be examples of the first hydrostatic core phase. The projected distance between B1-bS and B1-bN is a few Jeans lengths. If their physical separation is close to this value, this pair would allow studying the mutual interactions between two forming stars at a very early stage of their evolution

Small representations of finite classical groups

Finite group theorists have established many formulas that express interesting properties of a finite group in terms of sums of characters of the group. An obstacle to applying these formulas is lack of control over the dimensions of representations of the group. In particular, the representations of small dimensions tend to contribute the largest terms to these sums, so a systematic knowledge of these small representations could lead to proofs of important conjectures which are currently out of reach. Despite the classification by Lusztig of the irreducible representations of finite groups of Lie type, it seems that this aspect remains obscure. In this note we develop a language which seems to be adequate for the description of the "small" representations of finite classical groups and puts in the forefront the notion of rank of a representation. We describe a method, the "eta correspondence", to construct small representations, and we conjecture that our construction is exhaustive. We also give a strong estimate on the dimension of small representations in terms of their rank. For the sake of clarity, in this note we describe in detail only the case of the finite symplectic groups.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publications in the proceedings of the conference on the occasion of Roger Howe's 70th birthday (1-5 June 2015, Yale University, New Haven, CT

Far-infrared observations of a massive cluster forming in the Monoceros R2 filament hub

We present far-infrared observations of Monoceros R2 (a giant molecular cloud at approximately 830 pc distance, containing several sites of active star formation), as observed at 70 μm, 160 μm, 250 μm, 350 μm, and 500 μm by the Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer (PACS) and Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver (SPIRE) instruments on the Herschel Space Observatory as part of the Herschel imaging survey of OB young stellar objects (HOBYS) Key programme. The Herschel data are complemented by SCUBA-2 data in the submillimetre range, and WISE and Spitzer data in the mid-infrared. In addition, C18O data from the IRAM 30-m Telescope are presented, and used for kinematic information. Sources were extracted from the maps with getsources, and from the fluxes measured, spectral energy distributions were constructed, allowing measurements of source mass and dust temperature. Of 177 Herschel sources robustly detected in the region (a detection with high signal-to-noise and low axis ratio at multiple wavelengths), including protostars and starless cores, 29 are found in a filamentary hub at the centre of the region (a little over 1% of the observed area). These objects are on average smaller, more massive, and more luminous than those in the surrounding regions (which together suggest that they are at a later stage of evolution), a result that cannot be explained entirely by selection effects. These results suggest a picture in which the hub may have begun star formation at a point significantly earlier than the outer regions, possibly forming as a result of feedback from earlier star formation. Furthermore, the hub may be sustaining its star formation by accreting material from the surrounding filaments